How Black male voters could influence the 2024 presidential election

This weekend former President and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump spoke at a Black church in Detroit to a mostly white audience.

The appearance was part of a big push by Trump’s campaign and the Republican Party to court a key voting demographic that appears to have soured a little on President Biden — Black men. Biden still holds a big lead over Trump among Black male voters, but polls show that gap is shrinking and it could decide who wins the election.

For a look at why some Black men may be gravitating toward the Republican Party and Trump, former executive director of the New York State Democratic Party Basil Smikle Jr. and former Republican political consultant Shermichael Singleton weigh in.

How effective is Trump’s outreach to Black voters?

Shermichael Singleton: “I think it's going to be very effective, particularly considering how close the margins were in 2020. We expect the margins to be just as close, perhaps even closer. This November, when you think about the fact that the former president increased his margins from 2016 to 2020 by 4% with Black men specifically, it is not mathematically impossible to see another increase of 2% to 3% now.

“For the listeners, 2% to 3% may seem mathematically insignificant, but when you're looking at a state like Georgia, where it was 11,000 vote difference, or Arizona, where there was a 10,000 vote difference, or Wisconsin, 22,000 vote difference, that 2% to 3% national increase could make the difference In a marginal presidential contest.”

Do we're mistaking voter apathy for a trend? 

Basil Smikle: “I don't know if it's apathy. I would, but I would say that Black voters, like many other voters, want their leaders to come and not only ask them for their support, but also talk to them about why they should get that kind of support. When I talk to a lot of African American voters, they would say that we've been hearing and talking so much about reproductive rights or migrant issues that they are waiting for a moment where there is a lot more engagement on issues that are specific to the Black community.

“If you consider most of the polling, and Pew Research has some polling as well, on how Black voters feel, there's still overwhelming support for Joe Biden. When you hear, as Shermichael mentioned, Wisconsin, Donald Trump talking about Milwaukee being a horrible city, and that is a Black-led city, you look at areas where he has targeted African Americans in his language, in his speech.

“I don't think there's going to be some sort of mass movement or even a slightly statistically significant movement toward Donald Trump as long as democrats do two things: One, remind the voters about what he said and what he's done or lack thereof in within the African American community, but also talk about ways in which Democrats have been supportive of the community.”

What key issues drive Black voters to the polls?

Singleton: “I do think that there is a difference from inner city, urban working class, Black men and educated, well-to-do Black people and Black men who live in the suburbs. And I think oftentimes when we speak about Black men or Black voters, we don't speak to the group, the way we speak, for example, about white voters, where we are more nuanced and we separate the difference from those who are more affluent, more well-traveled, more well-read, more well educated to those who are working class. And I think you have to do the same thing, which is why you are seeing that disconnect. I think working-class Black people have not seen materially their lives improve, whether it's Joe Biden in office, Donald Trump in office or any other president in the past.

“And if you do talk to them, I've done quite a few focus groups lately. I have another one coming up with Black men next week. And what you would hear from urban Black men is it doesn't really make a difference who is in the White House, things haven't changed for us. And so those are very, just to wrap up here quickly, those are very important and key themes. That must be assessed and analyzed when talking about the differences within the African American community.”

Smikle: “I could talk about a couple of things. One, when you, let's just talk about what Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation has promoted and all the things that could be lost in this election. When you think about African American men, let's talk about young men. Let's talk about men in school, for example, and the challenges that our education system is going to face in a Donald Trump presidency when it comes to learning, to teaching and learning. The ability of Black teachers, a few of them as they are, to be able, or any other teacher, to be actually able to teach an inclusive curriculum.

“When you think about the DEI, that same document [Trump is] saying should be stripped from any governmental agency, let's talk about and the administration should talk about the ways in which they're going to make sure that Black businesses, minority and women-owned businesses can actually thrive in a Joe Biden environment versus a Donald Trump environment. That is especially true since one of the growing, if not the fastest growing, cohort of entrepreneurs is Black women.

“To Shermichael’s point, and I understand the nuance that he's talking about and nuance is incredibly important, but my view is that, and I think this is something that I would continue to hammer home on … the way that Donald Trump talks about Black people, he does not make that distinction between what is suburban and what is urban. He does not make that distinction between what is middle class and what is not middle class.

“What he would do is, in my view, surround himself with celebrities and say, well, ‘I know Black people.’ Well, just because you're around Black people doesn't mean you know Black people. And so I try to say that yes, nuance is important because it's not a monolithic community, but at the same time, a lot of other leaders, and particularly Donald Trump, [who] will never address the community as such.”

The GOP has an issue with communicating with the Black community. Earlier this month, Rep. Byron Donalds said Jim Crow had some benefits for Black people. There have been some very clear links between the MAGA movement and white supremacy.

Singleton: “I think it matters for any group, if you're trying to target them, that you at a minimum understand their historic plight within the country, whether you're a Democrat or Republican, I think that goes without saying.

“Regarding Congressman Donalds, I mean not to get into his statement, but I think the point that he was attempting to make — although I think he didn't say as artfully as many would have perhaps wanted him to state it — was pertaining to the state of the Black family and that is an issue that we as Black people have to try to figure out and a lot of historic reasons why the Black family is sort of fractured as it is, and he didn't get into those nuances that I would have wanted him to.

“But to go back to the point on some of these Black men, you look at Black men who work in cities who live in urban cities, they have not seen any expansive movement for them economically, Basil talks a little bit about education data showcases that Black men and men in general, it's not just Black men. All men in the United States are falling behind our women in terms of educational attainment. We've seen an increase in suicide rates among young Black men. So there are some very serious issues that neither party is really addressing.  And I think Republicans have an opportunity. They need to do so.”

But do you think the so-called trend to get Black voters to vote for Donald Trump is real?  

Smikle: “I think the outreach from Donald Trump and conservatives, there has been an attempt toward it. I don't know that it's sticking.”

Thomas Danielian produced and edited this interview for broadcast with Catherine Welch. Allison Hagan adapted it for the web.