Trump's conviction could change the presidential race in New Hampshire and other swing states

For the first time ever, voters across New Hampshire — and the rest of America — are considering what it means that a former president and presidential candidate from a major party is a convicted felon.

"It's not good for our country at all," said Carol Dehaven, an unenrolled voter from Hollis, N.H., who voted for Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Primary. "I also think it's horrible that he could become the next president of the United States."

After Haley dropped out, despite some reservations, Dehaven said she decided to vote for Joe Biden. She said Trump's conviction only makes her more certain she will not support the former president in November.

"I just really do not like the man, the person, his politics — nothing," she said.

But if Trump's criminal conviction hardens the resolve of voters like Dehaven, it will likely rally his most loyal supporters. So says Chris Ager, a Trump backer and chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee.

"They're going to crawl through broken glass to vote for President Trump," Ager said.

Trump was found guilty this week of 34 felony counts for falsifying business records to pay off a porn star in a scheme to influence the 2016 election. But Ager called the case against the former president "unfair," arguing the justice system is not applying the law equally.

"They seem to be throwing the book at President Trump," he said, adding that Trump's guilty conviction could even win over voters who are on the fence about the former president.

Steve Duprey, the former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, who does not support Trump, has a different view:  he said there is probably "a small percentage of people" upset about the economy, immigration or with some of President Biden's policies who were leaning toward supporting Trump. But after his criminal conviction, they will rethink that plan, which Duprey said "could help Biden in some small degree."

Biden carried New Hampshire in 2020 by more than seven points, but a recent poll from UNH shows the race is now much closer, with Biden leading by just two points. It also found that if Trump were convicted, it would probably help Biden win over some undecided voters: 23% of them said they would be more likely to vote for Trump if he were convicted, while 37% said they would be less likely to do so.

"That may very well be enough in this state and some other swing states to make a difference in a close election," Duprey said.

Making predictions about an election that's months away is always a risky game; it's even trickier this time because the country is in uncharted political waters.

"My first reaction is to be circumspect and cautious because we've never seen anything like this happen before," said Dante Scala, a professor of politics at the University of New Hampshire. "This will take time to play out over the next few months."

Still, Scala expects the conviction to cause Trump's loyal base to double-down on its support for him, just as it will cause Trump haters to recommit to Biden. He wonders if younger voters, including progressives who may have been drifting away from Biden, will come back to the president now that he's running against a convicted felon.

But Scala is not ready to write off Trump — far from it. He said over the past decade, he's predicted Trump's political demise more than once, only to see him bounce back.

"I've been wrong more often than not," he said.

Indeed, Trump has shown again and again a rare capacity to survive and thrive amid scandal. Now, he's facing his biggest scandal yet.